BTIG Downgrades Vericel Corporation (VCEL) to Neutral

BTIG analyst Ryan Zimmerman downgraded Vericel Corporation (NASDAQ: VCEL) from Buy to Neutral.

The analyst comments "We downgrade VCEL shares to Neutral (from Buy) and remove our $45 PT. VCEL shares are down ~42% YTD following 2 softer quarters and despite our prior belief that MACI Arthro would deliver upside to numbers in 2H25. Our survey of MACI users included in this note suggests limited increases in both biopsy growth and conversion from the MACI Arthro launch to drive numbers much higher than they already are (meaning that results are likely to be in-line to slightly lower than Street estimates). ~60% of surgeons surveyed expect no change to MACI volumes despite Arthro as an option now, and there is little change in terms of lesion location for MACI treatment suggesting that Arthro is not unlocking new anatomical opportunities in cartilage repair (as of yet). Based on our survey, we expect a low-20% increase in MACI procedure growth in FY26 (in-line with Street) with growth slowing beyond this for ~14.8% CAGR of MACI volume through FY28. This also assumes a higher conversion ratio of biopsy-to-procedure from the survey than what VCEL has seen historically. When we consider this CAGR coupled with an annual MSD price increase, we believe mid-to-high-teens growth is the correct place to assume MACI can grow for the foreseeable future (yet Street estimates in FY26 and beyond are a few hundred basis points above this). With shares trading ~5x NTM EV/Sales, much of the weakness (past, present, and future) is priced in but without upside to results expected ahead, we're not certain what reignites investor interest either, thus Neutral is the right rating."

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Vericel Corporation click here. For more ratings news on Vericel Corporation click here.

Shares of Vericel Corporation closed at $33.23 yesterday.

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