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American Airlines (AAL) lowers Q2 EPS guidance

May 28, 2024 4:46 PM EDT

American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) disclosed:

On May 29, 2024, the Company is presenting information relating to its financial and
operational
outlook at Bernstein’s 40
th
Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. As previously announced, this presentation will be webcast with the link available at the Company’s website at www.aa.com under “Investor Relations.”
Additionally, the Company is providing investors an update regarding its financial and operational guidance for the second quarter of 2024. The Company is lowering its guidance for adjusted operating margin
1
by 1 percentage point, to between approximately 8.5% to 10.5%. The Company now expects second-quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share
1
to be between approximately $1.00 and $1.15. Second-quarter TRASM
2
is now expected to be down approximately 5% to 6% versus the second quarter of 2023.
CASM-ex
3
in the second quarter is now expected to be approximately flat to up 1% year over year. Second-quarter average fuel price is now expected to be approximately $2.70 to $2.80 per gallon of jet fuel
4
(including taxes).
Estimated 2Q 2024
Current Guidance
Previous Guidance
Adjusted operating margin
1
~ 8.5% to 10.5% ~ 9.5% to 11.5%
Adjusted nonoperating expense
1
No change ~ $350
Adjusted earnings per diluted share
1
($/share)
~ $1.00 to $1.15 ~ $1.15 to $1.45
Available seat miles (vs. 2Q 2023)
No change ~ +7% to +9%
TRASM
2
(vs. 2Q 2023)
~
-5%
to
-6%
~
-1%
to
-3%
CASM-ex
3
(vs. 2Q 2023)
Flat to +1% ~ +1% to +3%
Average fuel price
4
(incl. taxes) ($/gallon)
~ $2.70 to $2.80 ~ $2.75 to $2.95
1
Adjusted operating margin, adjusted nonoperating expense, and adjusted earnings per diluted share excludes net special items and are
non-GAAP
measures. Adjusted earnings per diluted share calculation assumes an interest expense addback for the 6.5% convertible notes of $11 million net of estimated profit sharing and tax effects, and a diluted share count of 722.5 million for 2Q 2024. Shares outstanding are based upon several estimates and assumptions, including average per share stock price and stock award activity. The number of shares in actual calculations of earnings per share will likely differ from those set forth above.
2
Total revenue per available seat mile.
3
CASM-ex
is cost per available seat mile (CASM) excluding fuel and net special items and is a
non-GAAP
measure.
4
Based on the forward fuel curve as of May 22, 2024. Consumption of ~1.12 to 1.14 billion gallons assumed in 2Q 2024.
Certain components of the guidance provided exclude fuel and net special items. The updated guidance provided herein is presented to provide comparability with prior guidance. The Company is unable to fully reconcile such forward-looking guidance to the corresponding GAAP measure because the full nature and amount of net special items cannot be determined at this time.

The information in this Item 7.01 is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.


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