Survey shows 1/3 of GLP-1 users are lower-income

Investing.com -- A new BTIG survey of more than 1,000 GLP-1 users in the United States found that roughly one-third fall into the lower-income bracket, defined as earning less than $45,000 per year.

The brokerage analysts noted they were surprised by the findings given the high cost of these medications, which typically run $500 to $1,000 per month.

They said access has widened through compound scripts offered by companies like LifeMD and Hims and Hers for as little as $130, and in part through Medicaid coverage in several states.

Upper-income consumers, earning more than $75,000 annually, made up 44% of survey participants, while the remainder were middle-income.

Usage was also more balanced by gender than earlier studies, with women accounting for 54% and men 46%. The largest group of users were middle-aged adults between 35 and 49 years old.

The survey found that around 70% of respondents reported dining out less since starting the medication, with similar numbers saying they are spending less when they do.

Lower-income users were the most likely to cut back, with 73% reporting reduced visits compared to 66% among upper-income participants.

“GLP-1s will be a headwind for the restaurant industry until we pass peak usage, when the number of users dropping off the medications is greater than the number of new users,” BTIG analyst Peter Saleh said in a note.

He added that 70–80% of users discontinue the drugs within the first year, which may eventually ease the pressure on restaurants.

Eating habits are changing as well. GLP-1 users reported sharply reducing consumption of carbonated beverages (68%), pizza (67%), burgers (59%) and alcohol (63%).

Snacking was the most common reduction, with 58% saying they cut back, while about a quarter reported eating less at breakfast, lunch or dinner.

In terms of calories, 31% estimated they had reduced intake by 500–800 calories per day, and another 30% reported cutting 300–500. BTIG noted this is consistent with recent comments from McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski, who said the average daily calorie reduction among GLP-1 users was about 800.

The firm estimates that 5% to 10% of U.S. adults are currently using GLP-1s, up from a low single-digit percentage a few years ago, and expects this figure to rise as costs fall and access improves.

Saleh projected that the restaurant industry could face a 50–100 basis point sales headwind from lower-income users alone, with a broader impact of 120–230 basis points from all users.

The analyst tied this in part to sharp declines in lower-income traffic at quick-service chains, with McDonald’s indicating that all of its breakfast traffic loss has come from that group.

Restaurants focused on pizza and traditional burgers are seen as the most exposed, while health-oriented fast casual concepts such as Chipotle and Sweetgreen appear better positioned to adapt.

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