Reaction roundup: Experts, analysts weigh in on SCOTUS tariff ruling

Investing.com -- The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday issued a long-awaited opinion in which it deemed that President Donald Trump did not have the power to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs last year under an emergency act.

The top court, in a 6-3 decision, said that Trump’s use of a 1977 law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the tariffs was unauthorized.

Trump was critical of the top court after the ruling, calling it "deeply disappointing" and a "disgrace to our nation" and suggesting that the court had been "swayed by foreign interests." The president said the tariffs would still remain in place under other statutes, while imposing a new global 10% levy.

With U.S. importers paying billions of dollars each month in tariffs, the SCOTUS opinion takes on added significance. In Friday’s ruling, the top court did not weigh in on whether the government had to issue refunds for tariffs already collected.

Wall Street ended higher after the SCOTUS decision. Here are some popular exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark S&P 500 index: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO), and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: IVV).

See below for various reactions to the SCOTUS ruling:

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan:

"Given the statements made by various administration officials, a reasonable base case is that the administration will use the various legal authorities to leave unchanged the average effective tariff rate facing U.S. purchasers.

That said, even this outcome would entail a significant realignment of tariffs placed on different products from different countries, thereby creating winners and losers. This would also mean a material increase in trade policy uncertainty, creating a new headwind to capex.

While the U.S. economy clearly performed better than feared after liberation day, non-tech capex contracted last year, a very rare occurrence outside of a recession."

Zak Stambor, principal analyst at Emarketer:

"The Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump lacks emergency authority to impose many of his administration’s tariffs removes one arrow from the administration’s quiver, but it doesn’t disarm it. While the decision provides some near-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainty facing retailers and brands.

We expect the ruling to create a modest tailwind for retail sales beginning this year, though that benefit will gradually fade by 2028. We now forecast retail sales will grow 3.5% to $7.78 trillion this year, roughly $13 billion above our previous outlook.

While that topline lift appears modest, the gains will likely be concentrated in import-heavy discretionary categories where pricing pressure has been most acute. We expect more pronounced upside in computers and consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, and furniture and home furnishings."

Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management:

"The Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s tariffs, which removes a significant layer of uncertainty and friction from the markets, which only 10-months ago experienced their fastest correction since the March 2020 Covid pandemic because of tariff fears.

This may very well be the catalyst that the stock market needs to move out of the narrow trading range that it has been in so far in 2026. While it’s been several months since stocks reacted meaningfully to tariff news, the Supreme Court’s ruling on this has been a key uncertainty for stocks since Liberation Day last April, and that uncertainty has now been lifted.

We would not be making any changes to an investment portfolio based on the Supreme Court striking down the tariffs, but it’s an important reminder about how stocks and markets adapt over time and adjust to new normals."

Mohamed El-Erian, ex-CEO of PIMCO:

"Who owns what to whom?

This question about the IEEPA Supreme Court ruling impacting $133 billion of possible tariff refunds is being actively debated in many places, and soon in the courts.

There are also lots of questions about how the tariff regime will evolve as the Administration pursues at least three alternative legal paths. Even if the overall tariff collection remains the same by the end of the year, as suggested by Secretary Bessent, the incidence on companies and sectors may be quite different."

Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group:

"The market reaction to the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump-era tariffs was muted, suggesting it was largely priced in. Because IEEPA tariffs accounted for about 60% of those imposed, the decision’s economic impact is limited. Retail stocks are benefiting from expectations of lower cost pressures.

The ruling also supports inflation expectations and increases the likelihood of rate cuts as tariff-related headwinds ease—making it a win for businesses and consumers alike."

Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial:

"We would fade a short-term bounce on the Supreme Court ruling because the Trump administration will quickly pivot to different legal grounds for replacement tariffs while deficits go higher in the interim. However, if lower tariffs help cool inflation, it could firm up expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year."

Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group:

"The Supreme Court decision will pave the way for accelerated rate cuts as inflation expectations from tariffs are now less of a factor. The looming question is what new authority the Administration will use to salvage some of the tariff revenue."

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