Mizuho discusses COIN and HOOD amid ’freezing’ crypto winter

Investing.com -- Mizuho said fundamentals at Robinhood and Coinbase continued to deteriorate as the “crypto winter” drags on, with falling digital-asset prices pushing casual traders out of the market and pressuring take rates.

In a note, Mizuho stated that both firms were hit as “casual crypto traders – where take rates are higher – [stepped] away as crypto prices declined.”

The analysts added that there is “no clarity when they will return.”

However, Robinhood appears better positioned in the downturn because more than 80 percent of its revenue is outside crypto, compared with 100 percent in crypto for COIN, Mizuho said.

The firm cut its price targets on both stocks to $135 from $172 on Robinhood and to $170 from $280 on Coinbase, citing lower Bitcoin levels.

Robinhood management noted that “where there was less market volatility…the casual trader stepped away, but we saw really strong engagement from the more active traders,” adding that rebate rates started the year about five basis points lower than the fourth-quarter average.

Coinbase saw its take rate fall to 142 basis points from 154 as a mix shift pushed more volume to advanced products and Coinbase One users, according to management.

Mizuho noted that Robinhood’s flows as a percentage of Schwab self-directed assets fell to about 26 percent in the fourth quarter, down from an average of roughly 34 percent over the prior seven quarters. The firm said this “key bogey” will be closely watched into 2026.

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