Jefferies previews Kiawah energy conference themes

Investing.com -- Jefferies previewed themes for its upcoming Kiawah conference, covering oil markets, integrated gas strategies, supply chain issues, and U.S. power market developments, according to a research note released this week.

The firm said commodity price action continues to confound investors despite ongoing conflict, inventory draws, and warnings from industry executives about approaching "tank bottoms." Jefferies maintains a products-led view, stating that sustained high utilization rates through 2029 will be required to rebuild inventories and strategic stocks, with diesel as a focal point.

The Kiawah Energy '26 conference will feature discussions with Dr. Amrita Sen on macro themes, alongside topics including integrated gas models, global supply chain dislocations, electrification, power markets, and strategic outlook for the sector.

Jefferies hosted a virtual LNG conference Friday that highlighted constructive sentiment around long-term sector growth. The U.S. is positioned to benefit from rising geopolitical risk following the Iran conflict, which is expected to structurally elevate perceived risk for Qatari supply and drive diversification toward U.S. export routes. Participants expressed positive views on continued U.S. LNG expansion with multiple projects targeting final investment decisions, supported by strong Asian contracting demand.

On Sable Offshore Corp (NYSE: SOC), the firm noted that Monday the company released an updated development plan focused on maximizing free cash flow. Chris Wright confirmed in an interview this week that the Department of War is in "active dialogue" to create a strategic petroleum reserve in California with support from SOC. An initial storage facility of approximately 370,000 barrels with a second phase potentially up to 30 million barrels is being discussed. Jefferies maintains a Buy rating with a $24 price target on SOC.

On U.S. natural gas, Jefferies said power burn is poised for a material inflection in summer 2026 after gas to coal switching caused 2025 to underwhelm. The firm models 1.75 billion cubic feet per day in incremental power demand driven by three catalysts: a reversal in Southeast dual-fuel coal-to-gas switching economics, coal restocking supporting prices with trickle-down impact to natural gas, and continued data center load growth.

Jefferies initiated coverage on Kodiak Gas Services (NYSE: KGS) this week with a Buy rating and $79 price target. The firm sees KGS delivering approximately 20% adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate through fiscal year 2030.

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