JP Morgan downgrades solar stocks amid tax credit shift

Investing.com -- JP Morgan downgraded U.S. residential solar stocks as expiring tax credits drive a rush of installations this year, followed by a sharp drop in demand for homeowner-owned systems.

JP Morgan downgraded Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) and SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ: SEDG) to Neutral on expected share losses and pressure on margins as the market moves decisively toward third-party-owned (TPO) models, leases and power purchase agreements.

Analysts now expect over 90% of installations in 2026 to come from TPO, up from roughly 50% today.

The shift is being driven by the upcoming expiration of the 25D tax credit for cash and loan purchases at the end of 2025, a change JP Morgan says will slash that segment by half in 2026.

Meanwhile, leases and PPAs remain eligible for a separate 48E credit, with added incentives, through 2027, and storage installations retain visibility through 2032.

Sunrun (NASDAQ: RUN) is JP Morgan’s top pick to benefit from the changes. The bank reiterated its Overweight rating and raised its year-end 2025 price target to $16 from $13, pointing to the company’s dominant share in the TPO space and strong position in residential storage.

However, it warned that Sunrun’s drive for cash flow could limit how aggressively it captures share.

For Enphase, JP Morgan sees softer margins as its core base of cash-sale installers erodes. While the company still serves the lease/PPA channel, that business is seen as less profitable. Its price target was slashed to $37 from $64.

SolarEdge could regain share in the U.S. inverter market due to its stronger exposure to leasing, though JPMorgan trimmed its rating after a sharp rally in the stock.

It raised the price target to $23 from $18, citing improved forecasts but advised waiting for a pullback.

You May Also Be Interested In

• L Catterton to sell $1B in Birkenstock shares in secondary offering
• MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT) Misses Q2 EPS by 33c
• Eikon Therapeutics, Inc. (EIKN) Misses Q2 EPS by 163c