HSBC is out with new AI TAM forecasts to 2030

Investing.com -- HSBC has raised its forecast for the global artificial intelligence total addressable market (TAM) through 2030, citing accelerating enterprise adoption of AI even as consumer growth falls short of earlier expectations.

In a note on Tuesday, HSBC increased its estimate for total AI market revenue across 2026-2030 by 38%.

The revision is said to reflect an upgrade to business-focused AI spending that more than offsets weaker expectations for consumer AI services.

According to HSBC, B2B AI industry revenue forecasts have increased by 74% over the 2026-2030 period.

The bank said “the B2B AI market is accelerating significantly,” driven by the emergence of agentic AI, expanding enterprise use cases and rapid progress in coding tools.

HSBC also highlighted agentic AI as a key growth driver, arguing that it is helping businesses adopt AI technologies more quickly and at greater scale.

The firm told investors that Anthropic currently appears to be “a clear leader in B2B,” while OpenAI remains “a serious but distant contender alongside Gemini.”

By contrast, HSBC cut its B2C AI revenue forecasts by 20% over the same period. The bank pointed to weaker-than-expected user growth and challenges monetizing consumer chatbot products. It also noted that lower-priced subscription tiers are creating average revenue per user dilution.

HSBC analysts believe the industry is increasingly evolving toward a concentrated market structure, describing the sector as the formation of an “LLM oligopoly” in the West. The bank argued that the high cost of computing infrastructure creates significant barriers to entry and supports a small number of dominant players.

Reflecting its more constructive outlook, HSBC lowered its estimate of OpenAI’s 2030 funding gap to $77 billion from $154 billion, citing improved cash flow assumptions, additional funding options and the rising value of AMD shares that could eventually be monetized.

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