Goldman upgrades Viking, cuts Norwegian on shifting cruise outlook

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs revised its cruise sector ratings amid what analyst Lizzie Dove called “the most hotly debated subsector” in its coverage, driven by mounting concerns about Caribbean oversupply.

The bank now expects “1H net yield growth to be pressured across the industry, before ramping in 2H,” and argues that consensus forecasts are “over estimating net yield growth across the board in 1H.”

Against this backdrop, Goldman upgraded Viking Holdings (VIK) to Buy, citing its resilience as broader cruise trends wobble.

Dove said “the benefits of VIK’s differentiated geographic exposure and higher-income demographic have offset the choppier broader cruise trend,” noting that the company has “~LSD% exposure to the Caribbean” and has seen “a nice acceleration in the 2026 pricing curve.”

Goldman believes VIK’s pricing power and mix shift toward exotic itineraries remain underappreciated, adding that “future potential capital returns program could double FCF/share and EPS growth.” The firm raised its price target to $78 from $66.

By contrast, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) was cut to Neutral due to its heavy exposure to a softening Caribbean market.

Dove wrote that NCLH is “shifting a significant amount of capacity into the Caribbean at a rate that far outpaces industry growth,” a setup that introduces “downside risk to consensus estimates.”

Goldman expects NCLH to rely on more aggressive price competition to fill berths, “pressuring net yield momentum relative to peers” until its private island and megaship strategy scales.

As a result, the bank lowered earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027, saying the stock now carries “a more balanced risk-reward profile.”

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