BofA downgrades Novavax stock on vaccine uncertainty

Investing.com -- Bank of America cut its rating on Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to Underperform from Neutral and lowered its price objective to $7 from $9, saying recent gains in the shares have overrun a still uncertain outlook for the company’s COVID-19 and flu vaccine programs.

Analysts said that while Novavax has executed well on cost cutting and operational cleanup, they see limited revenue upside near term.

They noted that commercialization of its COVID vaccine Nuvaxovid by partner Sanofi (NASDAQ: SNY) may be slow due to a restrictive U.S. label and fading pandemic demand.

The bank also said new FDA guidelines could make it harder and costlier for Novavax to sign new partners for its combined COVID/flu vaccine program.

BofA forecasts slowing overall revenue, estimating about $1 billion in 2025, slightly below the company’s guidance.

It expects longer-term COVID sales to taper as variant shifts require more studies, and cut its peak market share estimate for Nuvaxovid to 14% from 18%.

The analysts said the company’s vaccine platform still has potential but requires more external validation, with platform licensing or partnership deals representing the main upside risk to their view.

COVID opportunity is largely priced in, according to analysts warning that consensus revenue estimates may still be too high for the coming two years.

Novavax shares had risen recently as funding cuts hit mRNA competitors, but BofA said that tailwind now looks temporary

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