Bitcoin vs. gold: Safe-haven debate remains unclear after Iran shock

Investing.com -- The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran produced one of the most significant geopolitical shocks to markets since 2022, yet the safe-haven debate between Bitcoin and gold remains unresolved, according to new analysis from Capital.com.

Markets are rallying on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Capital.com said in its note that following the initial shock, retail traders “did not rotate into Bitcoin. They rotated into oil,” even as Bitcoin quietly climbed nearly 20% from its post-strike lows.

Platform data is said to show that Bitcoin participation fell 9% below pre-conflict levels, while gold “held its ground as the conventional crisis hedge.”

Oil saw the strongest rotation, with unique traders surging 328% and volumes rising 1,042% versus pre-conflict averages.

“When US and Israeli strikes hit Iran on the evening of 28 February, Bitcoin's immediate market reaction left little ambiguity. Within hours, over $128 billion in crypto market capitalisation was erased. Bitcoin fell from approximately $66,000 toward $63,000. Gold rose,” the firm wrote.

That reaction, Capital.com said, reflected Bitcoin’s growing institutional ownership, which now subjects it to the same “risk-off selling that hits equities during geopolitical shocks.”

Yet Bitcoin’s recovery introduced complexity. It outperformed equities over the full conflict period, aided in part by geopolitical dynamics that revived its anti-fiat narrative.

Capital.com highlighted reports that Iran demanded Bitcoin for certain payments during the Strait of Hormuz closures, calling it an example of “its use as an alternative payment system.”

Senior Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said the episode shows Bitcoin remains exposed to “significant cross currents,” with inflation, sanctions and risk sentiment pulling it in different directions.

“The safe-haven debate has a new data point — and neither side wins cleanly,” the firm concluded.

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