Bernstein upgrades Newmont on higher gold price forecasts

Investing.com -- Bernstein upgraded Newmont to Outperform from Market-Perform and raised its price target to $157 from $121, citing a sharply higher long-term gold price outlook.

The brokerage lifted its gold forecasts to $4800 an ounce for 2026 and $6100 an ounce for 2030, reflecting a new framework that links prices to net demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds, as well as the impact of US rate cuts.

Bernstein said gold demand in recent years has been driven mainly by central bank purchases and ETF flows. Central bank buying has remained elevated since 2022, after Russia was cut off from the SWIFT system, while ETF flows have acted as a swing factor tied to changes in real interest rates.

The firm said its net demand model and rate-cut analysis point to similar price outcomes. It also cited central bank surveys showing continued appetite for gold.

On the back of its higher price deck, Bernstein raised its EBITDA forecast for Newmont by 26% to $21.9 billion and said the stock offers clear leverage to rising gold prices.

In a 2025 survey of 73 central banks, 95% of respondents expected global gold reserves to rise over the next year, and 43% said their own holdings would increase. Over a five-year horizon, 76% expect gold to account for a higher share of reserves, while 73% foresee a reduced share for US dollar reserves.

The brokerage pointed to additional company-specific catalysts, including a new chief executive and her 2026 agenda, guidance that allows room to beat a high single-digit decline in managed production, and the potential for a more constructive relationship with its largest joint venture partner.

Bernstein increased its valuation multiple to 6.75 times EV to EBITDA from 6.50 times, applying it to its 2027 EBITDA estimate.

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