Barclays sees Tesla Q2 deliveries at 375,000, below consensus

Investing.com -- Barclays expects Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to report second-quarter deliveries of approximately 375,000 vehicles, falling short of the consensus estimate of around 400,000 units and representing a 10% year-over-year decline.

In a research note on Friday, Barclays wrote, “We estimate 2Q deliveries of ~375k units, well below consensus of ~400k, and below our published estimate post 1Q EPS back in April.”

The bank’s figure implies an 11% sequential increase, but a 16% decline versus the prior year.

Despite the weaker delivery figure, Barclays suggested investors may look past the shortfall.

“The Tesla narrative has increasingly turned to AV/Robotaxi, with investors likely more focused on the planned June 22nd Robotaxi launch and Tesla’s path to scaling AV than on 2Q deliveries/overall fundamentals,” wrote the bank.

Tesla’s inventory is expected to grow modestly, with Barclays forecasting an increase of about 5,000 units, taking inventory into the 120,000–130,000 vehicle range.

Barclays noted that volume weakness was signaled earlier in the year: “2Q volume was somewhat guided down in the 1Q earnings call, with management pulling their guide for y/y automotive volume growth.”

Looking ahead, the upcoming launch of a more affordable Tesla model remains a potential catalyst for a rebound in the second half.

“The planned launch of a more affordable model in 1H25 could potentially be a catalyst for strong 2H volumes,” Barclays said, while also expressing surprise at the lack of detail so far.

“It’s possible Tesla is keeping the new vehicle under wraps as to not cannibalize sales of the recently refreshed Model Y during the end-of-quarter delivery wave,” stated the bank.

Barclays continues to see macro challenges such as tariffs, trade, and political shifts as ongoing headwinds for Tesla’s automotive volumes.

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