c3.ai (AI) PT Lowered to $16 at UBS

UBS analyst Radi Sultan lowered the price target on c3.ai (NYSE: AI) to $16.00 (from $23.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst comments "After pre-announcing a disappointing F1Q26 (see our note here) C3 laid out an initial FY26 revs outlook of $290-300m which represents -24% y/y growth at the midpoint, well below the investor bogey for down 10-15% y/y. We believe the guidance methodology is now embedding conservatism with respect to License+PES revs which was $27m in 1Q26 and management suggested could be flattish on a dollar basis through the rest of the year. In our view FY26 numbers look de-risked at this point, but the key question remains if C3 can return to 15-20%+ growth in FY27+. We think this is possible given the much easier FY26 comp, if C3 could do +$4m q/q through FY27 this implies 17% growth (vs the +$6m q/q being guided to for F2Q26). Assuming a return to 15-20% growth next year C3 is trading at ~4.5x CY27 revs but we still have limited visibility into the revenue dynamics. Even with sentiment already leaning negative we think the setup is balanced from here and remain Neutral."

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