Oracle (ORCL) PT Lowered to $160 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria lowered the price target on Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) to $160.00 (from $195.00) while maintaining a Sector Perform rating.

The analyst comments "We maintain our Sector Perform rating but revise our PT to $160 (from $195) on Oracle, heading into F3Q26 earnings, slated for Tuesday, March 10th with a call at 5PM ET. ○ Stargate financing remains a question mark. Questions persist around Oracle's ability to fund its Stargate commitments. Recall as of F2Q26, Oracle carried >$100B in total debt, w/ negative FCF of ~$10B, and ~$12B of Capex. Beyond this, Blue Owl (Oracle's largest Stargate financing partner) declined in late 2025 to back the 1-GW Michigan Stargate campus, citing less favorable lease terms and concerns around rising leverage, drawing broader scrutiny causing the BDCs (OWL, ARES, APO, etc.) to sell off. Oracle has since guided to financing needs "substantially less" than $100B, and is reportedly in discussions with alternative equity partners. Despite the recently announced $45-$50B capital plan for 2026 (see here ), we continue to have questions around execution risk/the sustainability of off-balance-sheet commitments, which have ballooned across the ecosystem. ○ Looking for evidence that OCI capacity ramp is tracking to plan. We'll be looking for tangible proof-points that the OCI capacity build- out is tracking to plan. Recall, during F2Q26 earnings (see here ), Oracle guided to IaaS revenue of $18B and $32B in FY26 and FY27, respectively, which is dependent on the execution and timeliness of the physical infrastructure build-out. We'll be looking for commentary around ramped capacity, customer go-live timelines, and commentary around RPO conversion. ○ LLM leadership shift a risk given OAI concentration. Recall, when Oracle initially announced its OAI partnership, OAI was perceived to be the front-runner amongst the LLM providers. Perception has since changed, with Anthropic taking the lead in terms of enterprise LLM usage, code generation, etc., which raises continued questions around OAI's competitive postioning/financial standing and the implications for Oracle as an infrastructure partner. We'll be looking for commentary on customer diversification within the IaaS backlog. ○ Apps business not immune to software bear narrative. Last, Oracle's SaaS segment ($3.9B rev in Q2, +11% YoY) is not immune to the broader "death of software" narrative that's compressed multiples across software, particularly on fears around the economics of seat- based models. We'd look for commentary around seat expansion trends, consumption-based monetization for AI agents, and whether the Fusion AI Marketplace (launched in October) is driving incremental attach."

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