Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) PT Lowered to $34 at KBW

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Tommy McJoynt lowered the price target on Hamilton Insurance Group (NYSE: HG) to $34.00 (from $35.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The analyst commented: "We analyzed Hamilton's year-end 2025 GAAP loss reserve development triangles by segment and product line, finding total YE25 reserves were overstated by about 4%, or $128 million (YE24: we estimated redundancy of 7%, or $166 million). This was driven by a redundancy in property and specialty lines more than offsetting a slight deficiency in casualty reinsurance. HG had favorable reserve development once again in 2025, maintaining its track record of favorable development each year since its inception. We maintain our '26E/'27E EPS at $4.52/$5.24, which include $18m ($0.17) / $14m ($0.13), respectively, of favorable PYD. Separately, after the ex special-dividend date passed on 3/6/26, we take our target price to $34 (from $35), equating to 1.1x YE26 book. Reiterate Outperform."

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