UPDATE: JPMorgan Upgrades Mosaic (MOS) to Overweight

March 23, 2012 6:51 AM EDT
Get Alerts MOS Hot Sheet
Price: $22.35 -0.8%

Rating Summary:
    12 Buy, 20 Hold, 8 Sell

Rating Trend: Up Up

Today's Overall Ratings:
    Up: 14 | Down: 10 | New: 12
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(Updated - March 23, 2012 1:31 PM EDT)

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) is trading higher Friday following an upgrade from Neutral to Overweight at JPMorgan earlier. The firm also raised their price target from $57 to $68.

The prospects for the company have "clearly improved" and the replacement value for the company is approximately $92 per share, according to analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas.

Improvements at Mosaic, cited by Jeffrey J. Zekauskas, included:
  • resolving a long-standing dispute with Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT) over 1.3 million tons of potash production that had been subject to a tolling agreement. It can sell the disputed tonnage beginning in January 2013
  • reached a settlement with the Sierra Club over permitting for mining phosphate rock at the large South Forte Meade mine in Florida, thereby lowering its purchased rock requirements and reducing its cost structure.
  • China just settled a large potash contract this week with Canpotex and the other potash producers flat at $470 per ton cfr. This was better than expected as the base case assumed it would settle lower.
On a base case for Mosaic being $92 per share, Zekauskas notes that bidders for Mosaic after May 2013 would not be subject to tax penalty. He notes that Potash Corp. received an unsuccessful hostile bid from BHP (NYSE: BHP) in 2009.

The analyst trimmed 2012 earnings estimate from $4.90 to $4.75. He raised F2013 EPS projection from $5.20 to $5.30 to reflect higher potash prices following the China contract potash settlement. He reduced F2014 earnings from $6.40 to $6.00.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Mosaic click here. For more ratings news on Mosaic click here.

Shares of Mosaic closed at $56.27 yesterday.


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