e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) PT Lowered to $151 at Stifel

Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan lowered the price target on e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) to $151.00 (from $167.00) while maintaining a Hold rating.

The analyst commented: "We view upside to consensus sales expectations for F4Q24 and F2025 as reasonable based on a deep dive build-up of e.l.f.’s sales by segment, viewing 62% y/y sales growth in F4Q24 (consensus 56%) and 37% y/y sales growth in F2025 (consensus 28%) as reasonable. We estimate initial F2025 guidance is likely to be near consensus, 28% growth, suggesting less upside relative to initial expectations than in F2023 and F2024. Nearer-term worries include U.S. market share declining from late February/early March peaks in three of four major product categories over the last 12-weeks and coinciding with a slowdown in U.S. mass beauty sales that has accelerated in 2Q24-to-date. From a stock standpoint, we reduce our price target to $151, 24x F2026E adjusted EBITDA, with the lower multiple reflecting noted market share and category dynamics, despite our expectations for continued solid growth in international and untracked U.S. channels."

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