Illumina (ILMN) PT Lowered to $175 at Evercore ISI

Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Kumar lowered the price target on Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) to $175.00 (from $195.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "Standalone FY25 EPS of >$4.50: A lot of investor focus has been around ILMN valuation once the GRAL overhang is removed. We are modeling ~$4.54 EPS for FY25 based on ~6% organic growth, ~200 bps of OMx and ~24% tax rate (share count of ~162M) – see Fig 2. Assuming MSD rev outlook for FY25: There is a robust debate around ILMN’s 2H24 rev ramp. The current Guide contemplates ~flattish revs with 1H organic of -4% implying 2H growth of +4%. Skeptics point to muted macro funding and incremental competitive pressures (Element & Ultima) as HWs in 2H. With ILMN’s NovaX system lowering price per sample by ~60% (this is an xl assumption…real world impact is lower), demand elasticity questions have also come up. On our part, we are modeling -1% for FY24, with 4Q jump off of ~5%. We are basing our ~6% org for FY25 based on this 4Q jump off, and assuming macro funding env remains challenged in FY25."

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