Cantor Previews Taiwan Semi (TSM) into Earnings

Cantor Previews Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) into Earnings

The analyst comments "With 2Q revenues above the high end of the guidance, we fully expect a raise to TSMC's full-year revenue outlook to the high 20's percentage range. With the raise to revenue, we anticipate TSMC also raising their capex outlook at least to the high end of their guidance of $28-32B to maintain a consistent capex-to-sales ratio. Elsewhere, considering 3nm customers will broaden beyond Apple to include AMD and Intel throughout 2024, we think risk is for 3nm to grow to 20+% of total revenues in CY24 vs. prior guide of mid-teens. In turn, this provides comfort for a step-up in both 3/2nm investments into 2025. The other important takeaway is that HPC is now moving closer and closer to the leading-edge node at TSMC. This is a significant game-changer, with HPC and Apple the pipe-cleaners for the new nodes. Finally, there will likely be considerable focus on expected January 1, 2025 price increases and impact to the company's longer-term GM outlook."

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