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Barclays on U.S. Retail Hardlines: Black Friday & Post-Thanksgiving Observations

November 28, 2011 1:47 PM EST
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Barclays on U.S. Retail Hardlines: Black Friday & Post-Thanksgiving Observations

Analyst, Alan M. Rifkin, said, "Based on our post-Thanksgiving weekend observations, we maintain our recently revised holiday outlook. Our store checks over the holiday weekend suggest strong customer responses to promotional offerings. Customers appeared to be very price conscious, but willing to spend on discretionary items when the opportunity warrants. Many customers appeared to embrace earlier store hours, which, in the case of Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), began at midnight on Black Friday. We believe, however, that the earlier openings simply pulled forward some demand that would have likely been realized regardless. We maintain our comps estimate of 2.5%-3%, (which we revised upward on 11/21 from 2.0-2.5%). The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects a 2.8% gain in total sales vs. 5.2% LY (and vs. the 10-year average of 2.6%)."

"We continue to urge selectivity and recommend companies with strong fundamentals and low cyclicality. Our Overweight Top Picks are AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), O'Reilly (Nasdaq: ORLY) and Tractor Supply (Nasdaq: TSCO)."


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