Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: September Sales Preview
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Rating Summary:
20 Buy, 27 Hold, 4 Sell
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 12 | Down: 20 | New: 7
Rating Summary:
20 Buy, 27 Hold, 4 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 12 | Down: 20 | New: 7
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Barclays on U.S. Department Stores/Broadlines: September Sales Preview
Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "Our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Stores Same Store-Sales Index estimate for September of 5.4% reflects an ongoing deceleration since April, though the trend remains positive compared to last year's 3.9% increase. We believe that the recent break in cooler weather has driven consumers to the malls, lifting sales in fall merchandise. On a two-year basis, we are expecting a 9.3% increase, which represents a deceleration from the double-digit two-year increases in the past seven consecutive months."
"We note that September represents the back end of the Back to School season, and believe that results should provide additional visibility into the upcoming holiday season given the historically strong correlation between the two. Back to School purchases began later this year, with a greater portion of BTS sales expected to be captured in September than in August. We now estimate a comp increase of 5.6% for the combined August and September period. We are raising our Target (NYSE: TGT) estimates to 3%-4% from 2%-4%, as we believe Target participated in a pickup of cold weather merchandise and generated significant traffic from the Missoni launch."
"We also believe that September has brought initial higher pricing increases which vendors and retailers have been expected to implement in 2H11. With high end consumers historically showing less resistance, Macy's (NYSE: M), Saks (NYSE: SKS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) are expected to once again generate comps in line with or above the universe average."
Analyst, Robert S. Drbul, said, "Our Barclays Capital Broadlines/Dept. Stores Same Store-Sales Index estimate for September of 5.4% reflects an ongoing deceleration since April, though the trend remains positive compared to last year's 3.9% increase. We believe that the recent break in cooler weather has driven consumers to the malls, lifting sales in fall merchandise. On a two-year basis, we are expecting a 9.3% increase, which represents a deceleration from the double-digit two-year increases in the past seven consecutive months."
"We note that September represents the back end of the Back to School season, and believe that results should provide additional visibility into the upcoming holiday season given the historically strong correlation between the two. Back to School purchases began later this year, with a greater portion of BTS sales expected to be captured in September than in August. We now estimate a comp increase of 5.6% for the combined August and September period. We are raising our Target (NYSE: TGT) estimates to 3%-4% from 2%-4%, as we believe Target participated in a pickup of cold weather merchandise and generated significant traffic from the Missoni launch."
"We also believe that September has brought initial higher pricing increases which vendors and retailers have been expected to implement in 2H11. With high end consumers historically showing less resistance, Macy's (NYSE: M), Saks (NYSE: SKS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) are expected to once again generate comps in line with or above the universe average."
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