Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: Global Automotive Conference Summary

Barclays on U.S. Autos & Auto Parts: Global Automotive Conference Summary

Barclays analyst Brian A. Johnson, said, "With an uncertain outlook, investors may prefer names with resilience. With an uncertain sales environment, we believe that investors should favor names that can grow top lines and expand margins even with stalled sales - as opposed to merely hoping that rising volume will improve margins (a tough call even in a rising sales environment as incremental margins have slipped in recent quarters). On the sales side, as is well known, BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) offer strong growth based on regulatory content; less well known is the large backlog growth at American Axle (NYSE: AXL). On the margin side, given the continued pressure, parts makers need to be able to either have products with defensible margins (e.g., Borg) or specific re-pricing or re-engineering opportunities (e.g., Dana (NYSE: DAN))."

"With the market back to pricing in a 50% chance of a double-dip, we think auto stocks look cheap across the board -- making it tempting to chase beta: While we believe business results should favor the better positioned players such as BWA and AXL, with many names pricing in a significantly greater chance of a double dip, improved market macros could lead to short-term rebounds, making us reluctant to give up yet on our Overweights."

Other U.S. Auto stocks include: Ford (NYSE: F), GM (NYSE: GM), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Meritor (NYSE: MTOR), TRW (NYSE: TRW), Lear (NYSE: LEA), Fuel Systems (Nasdaq: FSYS), Titan Intl (NYSE: TWI) and Superior Industries (NYSE: SUP)

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